December 2007


and a happy New Year.

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One of the mysteries of the FI eTrading space in Europe has been “what does Bloomberg do each day in €’s?”. Even ex-Bloomies don’t seem able to tell you.

Is it a secret within BBG or have they been brainwashed never to spill the beans? The likes of TradeWeb, MarketAxess and BondVision are quite open – primarily for reporting and/or marketing purposes.

Anyway, I’ve recently seen claims made by Bloomberg based on 2006 volumes:

Euro Government Bonds (EGB): approx. €5bn a day, capturing 37% of the market (Which market? Let’s assume B2C eTrading)

This seems a bit high from what I’ve heard. Using the Bearing Point 2007 survey as my source, backed up by anecdotal evidence, it puts the EGB B2C eMarket at approx. €10bn a day. Using Bloomberg’s figures it is €14bn! That’s quite a discrepancy.

Granted Bearing Point doesn’t include single-dealer trades in the Bloomberg market share of 21%, however you can’t tell me that accounts for the extra 16%? I could be wrong but the Bearing Point figures ring more true to me.

Anyway, the single-dealer IRS accounts for approx. €5.5bn a day notional with 79% market share. Far and away the dominant arena for eSwaps at this stage. This is no great surprise as TradeWeb is yet to get an effective handle on this market yet and the likes of LiquidityHub and SwapStream are very new to it.

Then again, judging by the EGB figures, maybe this is a bit high also? Either way I can see the market share diminishing as swaps become more “e” and head down the competitive route.

Well, not quite, but after acquiring IIC last month, they’re now going to buy SwapsWire.